Here is my preliminary Spring and Summer Outlook Part 1 NE

North East States Including the Western Great Lakes Region

Spring overview

                A Mild Spring is in store for this region. After a harsh winter, an early Spring is about 60% and after looking at the Forecast Models I expect it to happen. Despite the Warmth, this region will be much wetter than normal. Far as severe weather, there is a chance for this too, but it is too early to tell. If it does happen probably won’t happen until late April Early May and could be frequent. Here are my month to month break down.

2^nd Half February

Looking more and more like Spring. A warm and wet end of the month. We may see above normal temperatures followed by slightly below normal temperatures but still wet. Some areas may get strong storms on the 22 and 23 time frame.

March

Looking Like a tough forecast to depict where or not the start will be mild or the end will be? According to the LRC Cycle it would be a stormy start with cooler and wetter than normal conditions, followed by a bit warm up at the end.

April

Looks wet and stormy. The end looks very warm and possibly dryer than normal to shape up the predictor for Summer. We may get a strong storm system by months end but I feel over all a pretty decent weather compared to this winter.

May

Looks Dry to start with very warm conditions. The end of the month looks stormy and cooler than normal.

June – August

Looks to be wet and cold to End Spring and Begin Summer. Followed by dryer and hotter than normal in July and August.

Early Predictions for Winter 2015

Looks to be warmer and dryer than normal. Once again the NOAAs Climate Prediction Center is forecasting for a big time El Nino possibly similar to the Winter of 1998 was.

Summary

Forecast confidence in my forecast is above normal or about a 60% to even 70% confidence rating…

Pig Winter Storm for the East and Central US January 6-8

The ECMRF is indicating a major cold artic flood in the Mid-West and Great Lakes into the Northeast. At the same time for a major blizzard from the Ohio River Valley into the New England. The GFS is not showing a thing except cold air not artic air either just cold. here is the ECMRF Model from December 31, at 7 AM ET or 12Z Run for 114 Hours Out to 180 Hours.

The Surface Plots. Just watch how the storm moves Northward from the Mississippi River Valley towards Buffalo, NY Area.

Now look at the Cold Artic Flood. Also known as the Pineapple Express and Siberian Express. The Pineapple Express is when warm air intrudes Alaska and the North Poll and Siberian Express is when Siberia moves into the US with its cold. 

Bellow is the 850 MB Temperature Plot. The 850 MB Level is about 5000 Feet above sea level.

Now look at the snow fall total for this time frame. The images bellow are the snow fall total for 6 hours from the forecast time.

Now look at the forecast totals from 0 hours to 174 hours.

I expect a major storm. I think the snow fall totals are under done due to how cold it will be. So the snow fall totals could be like 12 to 15 inches with 2 feet in some places. Stay Tuned.

This is why Meteorologists get a forecast wrong? My Complex Thanksgiving Forecasts

OMG Confusing Stuff. Models are having a very tough time for next week’s storm. Big question is where does the Upper level low over the Southern California goes, the Split Jet Stream where does it converge, and The Northern Low Pressure/Short Wave where does this piece of energy goes and how fast does it move, the NAO, PNA Forecasts. Everything is all over. My confidence of a storm is quite high about 95%. The placement of this storm is extremely low about 5% or less. The precipitation type for key forecast points Bos, NYC, Buf, Pit, Phi, Ext is extremely low for most about 30% Confidence or less. The Artic Plunge placement is low about 30%. So I want to ask you all, can we get the computer forecast model to agree on something to make forecasters job a bit easier.

 

Details….

 

Current Conditions….

Low pressure over the  Southern California, High Pressure over Nebraska South Dakota, High Pressure off the cost of Boston, and low pressure North of North Dakota and Low Pressure North of Idaho.

GFS OZ 11/21/13 for 0HR

It is the orange circled events that we have to watch closely on. The green are the projected current tracks of this system.

 

If it takes the further Eastward Track that ends near Albany, NY it will be a major Snow Storm Followed by A Flood of Artic Air. It may even be a Blue Northern where extreme cold air will come in for the Great Lakes and Mid-West for Thanksgiving.

If it takes the track off the cost of George South Carolina it will be just a rain maker and the Cold air retreats and Sunny for Thanksgiving in the Northeast.

 

I am not going to past the forecast models just yet as no one has the right idea, if they do they must be gifted.

 

But here is my weekend forecast For WNY from NWS Buffalo, weather.gov/buf Zip Code 14150

§  Overnight Showers. Low around 40. South wind 6 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

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§  Friday Showers, mainly before 10am. High near 48. West wind 9 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

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§  Friday Night A chance of rain and snow showers before midnight, then a slight chance of snow showers between midnight and 1am. Cloudy, then gradually becoming partly cloudy, with a low around 28. Northwest wind 8 to 18 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

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§  Saturday A chance of flurries between 9am and 10am, then a chance of snow showers after 10am. Partly sunny, with a high near 34. Breezy, with a west wind 10 to 15 mph increasing to 18 to 23 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

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§  Saturday Night A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 19. Blustery, with a northwest wind 20 to 22 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

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§  Sunday A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 24. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

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§  Sunday Night A chance of flurries before midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 19.

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§  Monday A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 34. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

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§  Monday Night A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 31. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

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§  Tuesday A chance of snow showers. Cloudy, with a high near 39. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

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§  Tuesday Night A chance of snow showers. Cloudy, with a low around 28. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

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§  Wednesday A chance of snow showers. Cloudy, with a high near 37. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

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§  Wednesday Night A chance of snow showers. Cloudy, with a low around 19. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

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§  Thanksgiving Day A chance of snow showers. Cloudy, with a high near 29. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

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Cool Summer may be the telling of what is to come this winter!

70.5 Degrees is the normal temperature for July and August in Buffalo, NY.

July Week 1 878/12 = 73.2

July Week 2: 1020/14 = 72.9

July Week 3: 1113/14 = 79.5

July Week 4: 958/14 = 68.4

July Week 5: 532 / 8 = 66.5

July Average: 360.5/5 =  72.1 That makes July +1.1 from the normal of 71.

 

August Week 1: 407/6 =  67.8

August Week 2: 683/10 68.3 Forecasted to be 67.7

Forecasted week 3: 940/14 = 67.1

Forecasted through week 3: 67.5  That makes August -2.5 From the normal of 70.

69.8 Degrees could be the final two month average which would be -0.5 degrees from the normal of 70.5

How does this correlate to my forecast from May 2013? I originally said it was going to be a cool and wet summer. Well this shows I am correct at this point. Now here is my forecast for this coming Fall. Cooler and dryer than normal at first followed by a slight warm up in November. I have this to say, we could be wetter than normal throughout if the tropics show up to play but I feel this year could be bellow normal for the Atlantic Hurricane Season too. I am forecasting only 1 Major Hurricane and 7 Minor Hurricanes with a total of 14 named storms. That would be similar to the 1992 hurricane season.

                For this coming winter as for a one sentence summery… Cold and Stormy for East of the Rockies; pleasantly mild for the West of the Rockies.

That is my preliminary forecast for the USA. The CFSv2 is a long range forecast model. It the original CFS was good, but was updated end of 2011. It has shown some better accuracy from other current models, but as for right now all long range forecast models show little to no help in a complete forecast beyond 3 months. But the CFSv2 is on the right pathway to win the lottery. I would put money on this lottery that this winter in the Northeast to be a blizzardy winter. I have feeling that this winter could come down in the record books far as snow in the big cities and cold temperatures. Here is my point.

 

                In the picture above shows the Seasonal 200 MB Height Anomalies from December January and February 2013/14. 1 shows a tighten pressure trough in the Eastern Asia witch shows strong storms to develop or intensify. 2 and 3 the Ridge over the Gulf of Alaska would be strong to shove a weaker than forecasted ridge on the West Coast this shows a positive PNA which means warmer and pleasant conditions for the West Coast. This would deepen the trough (4) in the Midwest and East Coast. Here we would see big time snow events and very cold if not brutal cold. And this (5) ridge over to near Greenland would show sings that Atmospheric blocking may occur. This would amplify the cold weather into New England States. Wow For more information you can read this meteorologists blog at http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/ and direct link to his comments on the same thing is http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/2013/08/2013-2014-winter-update-dont-worry-be.html

 

 

Premliminary Results on how Solar Maximums and the Effects on Climate.

I first Googled Solar Maximum effects on climate. Later found a link to http://forum.weatherzone.com.au/ubbthreads.php/topics/1190479/4 and went on to do my own research. Here are some of my highlights notes. The Earth’s Temperature was at a record coldest in the 1690s. The Solar Maximum was at a record low. So I Googled “what was the global temperature in 1690”

Next I discovered a rapid rise in temperatures in the 1950s, where there was also a big active time for solar maximums. So I Googled “what was the global temperature in 1950” I finally saw a rise in Solar maximums from 2000 to 20011. I Googled “what was the global temperature from 2000 to 2011” and found this image…

 

 

I noticed in 2010 we had a the lowest temperature since 1999. And found it was due to a low active time for Solar Maximums. And found this on a web search

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Here are a few supporting indications that higher than normal temperatures may actually be caused by the sun and not CO2 emissions.

 

From 1995 to present day we had have the least CO2 Emissions since keeping track of elevated CO2 in the 1950s. in 2010 we had an elevated spike in elevated CO2 emissions and again in 1999 from heavy manufacturing in countries like China. Now in the 1980s we had the highest CO2 emissions and later in the early 1990s made laws to stop the CO2 Emissions. But does this show man has the ability to control climate? In a way we can. But when we started to demolish grass lands and forests in the early to mid-1900s we noticed a big spike in global temperatures. So my analysis show that cutting down on vegetation may harm us in the long term and this is where we had the huge temperature impacts along with the sun being more active than normal.  So now that there is a global effort to save the tropical rain forests and other vegetation may actually lower overall temperatures in the near future. Let’s face it, in the 1920s to about 1938 when steel mills where in full force there was a tone of CO2 Emissions and caused major environmental and Climatological impacts. But in recent year we have lowered our CO2 emissions dramatically since the 1950s so I feel why wouldn’t this so called “Global Warming” been sooner than in recent years? This shows me that there is another major impact or other contributors in the overall Climate Change.

 

A Extreme Cold and Stormy Winter May Be Intact This Year!

I am currently doing research on the stormy and colder than normal winter for much of the US this coming winter. I am doing my forecasts right now on how the solar energy and solar maxima may impact the short term climate. We are coming up to the end of the solar maxima and the sun will sleep for another 100+ years. This Solar Maxima is expected to end this November. This could lead us to another Ice Age. I will have my research soon! So here is my preliminary Winter 2013-14 Outlook!

In the Northern Half of the Continental US we can expect colder than normal conditions. It can be especially colder than normal in the Northeast and Great Lakes Regions. Expect stormy weather in the Northeast and Northwest. Drier conditions in the South Plains States. Here in Buffalo, NY we will be in the center of a noticeable deep trough.

Strong Thunderstorms to move in...

Strong to even severe thunderstorms will move across the region this evening and bring damaging winds to 70 MPH and large hail to ¾ an inch. These storms as of 550 PM EDT where along a line from Toronto to Just East of London moving south eastward at about 30 MPH. These storms will move into the area before 8 PM and if they hold together they will cause damage.