NWS forecast from 5/30 to 6/6

7-DAY FORECAST

• OvernightPartly cloudy, with a low around 67. South wind around 7 mph.
• FridayA chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 4pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 89. South wind 8 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
• Friday NightA slight chance of showers and thunderstorms before 8pm, then a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 67. Southwest wind 9 to 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
• SaturdayA chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 10am. Partly sunny, with a high near 88. Southwest wind 11 to 16 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
• Saturday NightShowers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after 11pm. Cloudy, with a low around 66. South wind 9 to 16 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
• SundayOccasional showers and thunderstorms before 2pm, then a chance of showers. High near 74. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.
• Sunday NightA chance of showers before 11pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 54. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
• MondayPartly sunny, with a high near 67.
• Monday NightPartly cloudy, with a low around 49.
• TuesdayMostly sunny, with a high near 68.
• Tuesday NightMostly clear, with a low around 50.
• WednesdayMostly sunny, with a high near 74.
• Wednesday NightMostly cloudy, with a low around 53.
• ThursdayMostly cloudy, with a high near 74.

My forecast for WNY from 5/30 to 6/6

Discussion: Partly sunny on Friday with fairly calm day. Expect a shower or storm late on Friday. A better chance for storms on Saturday Evening into early Sunday Morning when severe weather is possible. Primary risk is damaging winds, large hail and an odd ball tornado. Clearing late on Sunday through mid-week next week. Next chance for showers and storms coming on Next Friday when we could get another round of strong storms.

 

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with a low near 67.

Friday: Mostly sunny through early afternoon. Then a slight chance for a late day shower or thunderstorm. High near 88. Chance for rain is near 30%.

Friday Night: Partly cloudy with a chance for showers and thunderstorms. Low near 68. Chance for rain is 40%.

Saturday: Partly sunny in the morning. Chance for showers and thunderstorms from mid-morning on. High near 85.Chance for rain is near 60%.

Saturday Night: Showers and thunderstorms. Warm and muggy with a low near 65. Chance for rain is 80%.

Sunday: Showers and thunderstorms from morning on. High near 75. Chance for rain 80%.

Sunday Night: Partly cloudy with a low near 57.

Monday: a chance for a shower in the afternoon. Partly sunny. High near 67. Chance for rain is 30%.

Monday Night: Partly cloudy. Low near 48.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny. High near 70.

Tuesday Night: Mostly clear skies. Low near 49.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny. High near 73.

Wednesday Night: A chance for showers or a thunderstorm late. Low near 61. Chance for rain 30%.

Thursday: Partly sunny with a chance for rain and thunderstorms late. High near 75.

Storms are starting to pop...

A chance for a stray shower or storm for early overnight tonight. this is based off the radar and satellite imagery.

Severe Weather Possible This Weekend for WNY!

I wanted to update my forecast with other forecast sites simply because I have been busy with work. So I am using several different forecasters forecast

 

Accuweather.com

Thursday May 30
	Humid with periods of clouds and sunshine	High: 88° F	RealFeel®: 88° F
	Partly cloudy and warm	Low: 65° F	RealFeel®: 69° F
Friday, May 31
	Very warm and humid with some sun; a shower or thunderstorm in spots in the afternoon	High: 86° F	RealFeel®: 86° F
	Mainly cloudy and warm with a shower or thunderstorm around	Low: 66° F	RealFeel®: 70° F
Saturday, Jun 1
	Clouds and sun, breezy, very warm and humid with a couple of showers and a thunderstorm	High: 85° F	RealFeel®: 86° F
	Considerable cloudiness, warm and humid with a shower or thunderstorm around	Low: 66° F	RealFeel®: 67° F
Sunday, Jun 2
	Considerable cloudiness and breezy with a shower or thunderstorm	High: 79° F	RealFeel®: 76° F
	Rather cloudy	Low: 55° F	RealFeel®: 65° F
Monday, Jun 3
	Chance of a shower in the morning; otherwise, times of clouds and sun	High: 67° F	RealFeel®: 72° F
	Mainly clear	Low: 45° F	RealFeel®: 52° F
Tuesday, Jun 4
	Mostly sunny and pleasant	High: 71° F	RealFeel®: 74° F
	Mainly clear; rising temperatures late	Low: 46° F	RealFeel®: 56° F
Wednesday, Jun 5
	Partly sunny and pleasant	High: 74° F	RealFeel®: 78° F
	Partly cloudy; not as cool late	Low: 52° F	RealFeel®: 60° F
Thursday, Jun 6
	Sun and clouds	High: 75° F	RealFeel®: 76° F
	Cloudy	Low: 56° F	RealFeel®: 59° F
Friday, Jun 7
	Cloudy and cooler; a morning shower in spots, then afternoon showers	High: 65° F	RealFeel®: 63° F
	Periods of rain and a thunderstorm	Low: 51° F	RealFeel®: 51° F

 

NWS Forecast for zip-code 14150

7-DAY FORECAST

§  Tonight A slight chance of showers after 2am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 68. Southwest wind 6 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

§  Thursday Mostly sunny, with a high near 88. Southwest wind 10 to 15 mph.

§  Thursday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 67. South wind around 8 mph.

§  Friday Mostly sunny, with a high near 89. Southwest wind 9 to 13 mph.

§  Friday Night A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 67. Southwest wind around 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

§  Saturday A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 11am. Partly sunny, with a high near 88. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

§  Saturday Night A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 68. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

§  Sunday Occasional showers and thunderstorms. High near 78. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

§  Sunday Night A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 55. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

§  Monday Partly sunny, with a high near 67.

§  Monday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 50.

§  Tuesday Mostly sunny, with a high near 69.

§  Tuesday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 51.

§  Wednesday Sunny, with a high near 75.

The Weather Cannel

5 Day Forecast can be viewed here...

 

 this here is the three day outlook by the National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center.

 

this here is the 4 to 8 day outlook by the National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center. day 4 is Sunday, June 2, 2013.

 

based on my forecast we could be in for a severe weather outbreak for our area this weekend. this may include tornadoes and damaging winds and even some large hail. stay tuned. later on tonight I will update my forecast.

 

 

 

Andy's Weather Site Will Be Out Of Service Until...

We are updating a server to our network. when this is completed we will be updating this post with the new site. until then this blog will be updated regular as a supplement.

Freeze Watch

Freeze Watch

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1137 PM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013

NYZ012-085-261145-
/O.CON.KBUF.FZ.A.0003.130527T0300Z-130527T1300Z/
WYOMING-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WARSAW...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
1137 PM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013

...FREEZE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING...

* LOCATIONS...SOUTHERN ERIE AND WYOMING COUNTIES...MAINLY THE
  SHELTERED VALLEYS INLAND FROM LAKE ERIE.

* TIMING...LATE SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 30S.

* IMPACTS...FREEZING OR SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE THE
  POTENTIAL TO DAMAGE OR KILL UNPROTECTED SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WATCH MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE.
THESE CONDITIONS COULD KILL CROPS AND OTHER SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

&&

$$

RSH

Freeze Watch

Freeze Watch

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1137 PM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013

NYZ019>021-261145-
/O.CON.KBUF.FZ.W.0003.130526T0600Z-130526T1200Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.FZ.A.0003.130527T0300Z-130527T1300Z/
CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...WELLSVILLE
1137 PM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013

...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY...
...FREEZE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING...

* LOCATIONS...WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER...MAINLY THE SHELTERED
  VALLEYS WELL INLAND FROM LAKE ERIE.

* TIMING...OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT
  INTO MONDAY MORNING.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 30S OVERNIGHT. IN THE UPPER 20S TO
  AROUND 30 SUNDAY NIGHT.

* IMPACTS...FREEZING OR SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE THE
  POTENTIAL TO DAMAGE OR KILL UNPROTECTED SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO THREATEN OUTDOOR PLANTS. IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNED
AREA YOU SHOULD PROTECT TENDER VEGETATION. ALSO...POTTED PLANTS
NORMALLY LEFT OUTDOORS SHOULD BE COVERED OR BROUGHT INSIDE AWAY
FROM THE COLD. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV
STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

A FREEZE WATCH MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE.
THESE CONDITIONS COULD KILL CROPS AND OTHER SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

&&

$$

Freeze Warning

Freeze Warning

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1137 PM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013

NYZ019>021-261145-
/O.CON.KBUF.FZ.W.0003.130526T0600Z-130526T1200Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.FZ.A.0003.130527T0300Z-130527T1300Z/
CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...WELLSVILLE
1137 PM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013

...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY...
...FREEZE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING...

* LOCATIONS...WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER...MAINLY THE SHELTERED
  VALLEYS WELL INLAND FROM LAKE ERIE.

* TIMING...OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT
  INTO MONDAY MORNING.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 30S OVERNIGHT. IN THE UPPER 20S TO
  AROUND 30 SUNDAY NIGHT.

* IMPACTS...FREEZING OR SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE THE
  POTENTIAL TO DAMAGE OR KILL UNPROTECTED SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO THREATEN OUTDOOR PLANTS. IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNED
AREA YOU SHOULD PROTECT TENDER VEGETATION. ALSO...POTTED PLANTS
NORMALLY LEFT OUTDOORS SHOULD BE COVERED OR BROUGHT INSIDE AWAY
FROM THE COLD. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV
STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

A FREEZE WATCH MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE.
THESE CONDITIONS COULD KILL CROPS AND OTHER SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

&&

$$

7-DAY FORECAST

• Overnight Clear, with a low around 41. Northwest wind around 8 mph.
• Sunday Sunny, with a high near 62. Northwest wind 11 to 16 mph.
• Sunday Night Clear, with a low around 39. Northwest wind 5 to 9 mph becoming light west after midnight.
• Memorial Day Sunny, with a high near 68. West wind 5 to 8 mph.
• Monday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 47. Southwest wind around 5 mph becoming light and variable in the evening.
• Tuesday A slight chance of showers after 3pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 75. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
• Tuesday Night A chance of showers after 7pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 61. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
• Wednesday A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 81. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
• Wednesday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 64.
• Thursday Mostly sunny, with a high near 83.
• Thursday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 64.
• Friday Mostly sunny, with a high near 83.
• Friday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 65.
• Saturday Mostly sunny, with a high near 82.

Strong storms at any time in WNY

Strong storms just popping up over wny. Stay tuned to your favorite weather source for updates.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch

Severe Thunderstorm Watch
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 203
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
140 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 203 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

NYC001-003-007-009-011-013-015-017-021-023-025-027-029-035-037-
039-041-043-051-053-055-057-063-065-067-069-073-075-077-083-091-
093-095-097-099-101-105-107-109-111-113-115-117-121-123-
220100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0203.130521T1740Z-130522T0100Z/

NY
.    NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ALBANY               ALLEGANY            BROOME
CATTARAUGUS          CAYUGA              CHAUTAUQUA
CHEMUNG              CHENANGO            COLUMBIA
CORTLAND             DELAWARE            DUTCHESS
ERIE                 FULTON              GENESEE
GREENE               HAMILTON            HERKIMER
LIVINGSTON           MADISON             MONROE
MONTGOMERY           NIAGARA             ONEIDA
ONONDAGA             ONTARIO             ORLEANS
OSWEGO               OTSEGO              RENSSELAER
SARATOGA             SCHENECTADY         SCHOHARIE
SCHUYLER             SENECA              STEUBEN
SULLIVAN             TIOGA               TOMPKINS
ULSTER               WARREN              WASHINGTON
WAYNE                WYOMING             YATES
$$

Severe Weather Up Date For WNY!

 

This is the CFS or Canadian Model at the 850 MB Level of the atmosphere or about 1200 to 1500 feet above sea level.This shows the storm system further west word than the other model shown below. 

 

 

Another model from the CFS at the Surface Pressure Plot.

This shows the 850 MB Level of the ECMWF or the European Model. this shows the storm system further east ward than the CFS.

This here is the CAPE from the ECMWF showing some modest instability for Tuesday Morning.

This here is the ECMWF Surface/Precipitation/1000MB-500MB Thickness and shows the storm system a bit west word and wounded up more than the CFS.

Here is the GFS or US Model this model has no ideal on the current weather maps and I will disregard this model for time being.This is the GFS 850 MB Temps.

This is the GFS Surface/Precipitation/1000MB-500MB Thickness

Final thought I am leaning towards the CFS as it has been right on for the last week or so on the severe weather part. However I am going to state this I will lean towards the ECMWF and the CFS Solution but with a compromise. This would bring a sunny day for Tuesday and bring showers and a thunderstorm late in the overnight on Tuesday Night into Wednesday Evening. The Storm Prediction Center currently has no risk area for WNY yet but that could change in later days. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/ for updated info go to www.weather.gov/buf