70.5 Degrees is the normal temperature for July and August
in Buffalo, NY.
July Week 1 878/12 = 73.2
July Week 2: 1020/14 = 72.9
July Week 3: 1113/14 = 79.5
July Week 4: 958/14 = 68.4
July Week 5: 532 / 8 = 66.5
July Average: 360.5/5 =
72.1 That makes July +1.1 from the normal of 71.
August Week 2: 683/10 68.3 Forecasted to be 67.7
Forecasted week 3: 940/14 = 67.1
Forecasted through week 3: 67.5 That makes August -2.5 From the normal of 70.
69.8 Degrees could be the final two month average which
would be -0.5 degrees from the normal of 70.5
How does this correlate to my
forecast from May 2013? I originally said it was going to be a cool and wet
summer. Well this shows I am correct at this point. Now here is my forecast for
this coming Fall. Cooler and dryer than normal at first followed by a slight
warm up in November. I have this to say, we could be wetter than normal throughout
if the tropics show up to play but I feel this year could be bellow normal for
the Atlantic Hurricane Season too. I am forecasting only 1 Major Hurricane and
7 Minor Hurricanes with a total of 14 named storms. That would be similar to
the 1992 hurricane season.
For
this coming winter as for a one sentence summery… Cold and Stormy for East of
the Rockies; pleasantly mild for the West of the Rockies.
That is my preliminary forecast for
the USA. The CFSv2 is a long range forecast model. It the original CFS was
good, but was updated end of 2011. It has shown some better accuracy from other
current models, but as for right now all long range forecast models show little
to no help in a complete forecast beyond 3 months. But the CFSv2 is on the
right pathway to win the lottery. I would put money on this lottery that this
winter in the Northeast to be a blizzardy winter. I have feeling that this
winter could come down in the record books far as snow in the big cities and cold
temperatures. Here is my point.
In the
picture above shows the Seasonal 200 MB Height Anomalies from December January
and February 2013/14. 1 shows a tighten pressure trough in the Eastern Asia
witch shows strong storms to develop or intensify. 2 and 3 the Ridge over the
Gulf of Alaska would be strong to shove a weaker than forecasted ridge on the
West Coast this shows a positive PNA which means warmer and pleasant conditions
for the West Coast. This would deepen the trough (4) in the Midwest and East
Coast. Here we would see big time snow events and very cold if not brutal cold.
And this (5) ridge over to near Greenland would show sings that Atmospheric
blocking may occur. This would amplify the cold weather into New England
States. Wow For more information you can read this meteorologists blog at http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/
and direct link to his comments on the same thing is http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/2013/08/2013-2014-winter-update-dont-worry-be.html
