OMG Confusing Stuff. Models are having a very tough time for
next week’s storm. Big question is where does the Upper level low over the
Southern California goes, the Split Jet Stream where does it converge, and The
Northern Low Pressure/Short Wave where does this piece of energy goes and how
fast does it move, the NAO, PNA Forecasts. Everything is all over. My confidence
of a storm is quite high about 95%. The placement of this storm is extremely low
about 5% or less. The precipitation type for key forecast points Bos, NYC, Buf,
Pit, Phi, Ext is extremely low for most about 30% Confidence or less. The Artic
Plunge placement is low about 30%. So I want to ask you all, can we get the
computer forecast model to agree on something to make forecasters job a bit
easier.
Details….
Current Conditions….
Low pressure over the Southern California, High Pressure over
Nebraska South Dakota, High Pressure off the cost of Boston, and low pressure
North of North Dakota and Low Pressure North of Idaho.
GFS OZ 11/21/13 for 0HR
It is the orange circled events that we have to watch
closely on. The green are the projected current tracks of this system.
If it takes the further Eastward Track that ends near
Albany, NY it will be a major Snow Storm Followed by A Flood of Artic Air. It
may even be a Blue Northern where extreme cold air will come in for the Great
Lakes and Mid-West for Thanksgiving.
If it takes the track off the cost of George South Carolina
it will be just a rain maker and the Cold air retreats and Sunny for
Thanksgiving in the Northeast.
I am not going to past the forecast models just yet as no
one has the right idea, if they do they must be gifted.
But here is my weekend forecast For WNY from NWS Buffalo,
weather.gov/buf Zip Code 14150
§ Overnight
Showers. Low around 40. South wind 6 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%.
New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
§
§ Friday
Showers, mainly before 10am. High near 48. West wind 9 to 13 mph. Chance of
precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of
an inch possible.
§
§ Friday Night
A chance of rain and snow showers before midnight, then a slight chance of snow
showers between midnight and 1am. Cloudy, then gradually becoming partly
cloudy, with a low around 28. Northwest wind 8 to 18 mph. Chance of
precipitation is 50%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.
§
§ Saturday
A chance of flurries between 9am and 10am, then a chance of snow showers after
10am. Partly sunny, with a high near 34. Breezy, with a west wind 10 to 15 mph
increasing to 18 to 23 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
§
§ Saturday Night A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around
19. Blustery, with a northwest wind 20 to 22 mph. Chance of precipitation is
50%.
§
§ Sunday A
chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 24. Chance of
precipitation is 50%.
§
§ Sunday Night
A chance of flurries before midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 19.
§
§ Monday A
chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 34. Breezy. Chance of
precipitation is 30%.
§
§ Monday Night
A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 31. Chance of
precipitation is 30%.
§
§ Tuesday A
chance of snow showers. Cloudy, with a high near 39. Chance of precipitation is
30%.
§
§ Tuesday Night A chance of snow showers. Cloudy, with a low around 28.
Chance of precipitation is 30%.
§
§ Wednesday
A chance of snow showers. Cloudy, with a high near 37. Chance of precipitation
is 30%.
§
§ Wednesday Night A chance of snow showers. Cloudy, with a low around 19.
Chance of precipitation is 30%.
§
§ Thanksgiving Day A chance of snow showers. Cloudy, with a high near 29.
Chance of precipitation is 30%.
§
