North East States Including the Western Great Lakes Region
Spring overview
A Mild
Spring is in store for this region. After a harsh winter, an early Spring is
about 60% and after looking at the Forecast Models I expect it to happen.
Despite the Warmth, this region will be much wetter than normal. Far as severe
weather, there is a chance for this too, but it is too early to tell. If it
does happen probably won’t happen until late April Early May and could be
frequent. Here are my month to month break down.
2nd Half February
Looking more and more like Spring. A warm and wet end of the
month. We may see above normal temperatures followed by slightly below normal
temperatures but still wet. Some areas may get strong storms on the 22 and 23
time frame.
March
Looking Like a tough forecast to depict where or not the
start will be mild or the end will be? According to the LRC Cycle it would be a
stormy start with cooler and wetter than normal conditions, followed by a bit
warm up at the end.
April
Looks wet and stormy. The end looks very warm and possibly
dryer than normal to shape up the predictor for Summer. We may get a strong
storm system by months end but I feel over all a pretty decent weather compared
to this winter.
May
Looks Dry to start with very warm conditions. The end of the
month looks stormy and cooler than normal.
June – August
Looks to be wet and cold to End Spring and Begin Summer.
Followed by dryer and hotter than normal in July and August.
Early Predictions for Winter 2015
Looks to be warmer and dryer than normal. Once again the
NOAAs Climate Prediction Center is forecasting for a big time El Nino possibly similar
to the Winter of 1998 was.
Summary
Forecast confidence in my forecast is above normal or about
a 60% to even 70% confidence rating…
