Severe Thunderstorm Watch

Severe Thunderstorm Watch
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 203
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
140 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 203 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

NYC001-003-007-009-011-013-015-017-021-023-025-027-029-035-037-
039-041-043-051-053-055-057-063-065-067-069-073-075-077-083-091-
093-095-097-099-101-105-107-109-111-113-115-117-121-123-
220100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0203.130521T1740Z-130522T0100Z/

NY
.    NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ALBANY               ALLEGANY            BROOME
CATTARAUGUS          CAYUGA              CHAUTAUQUA
CHEMUNG              CHENANGO            COLUMBIA
CORTLAND             DELAWARE            DUTCHESS
ERIE                 FULTON              GENESEE
GREENE               HAMILTON            HERKIMER
LIVINGSTON           MADISON             MONROE
MONTGOMERY           NIAGARA             ONEIDA
ONONDAGA             ONTARIO             ORLEANS
OSWEGO               OTSEGO              RENSSELAER
SARATOGA             SCHENECTADY         SCHOHARIE
SCHUYLER             SENECA              STEUBEN
SULLIVAN             TIOGA               TOMPKINS
ULSTER               WARREN              WASHINGTON
WAYNE                WYOMING             YATES
$$

Severe Weather Up Date For WNY!

 

This is the CFS or Canadian Model at the 850 MB Level of the atmosphere or about 1200 to 1500 feet above sea level.This shows the storm system further west word than the other model shown below. 

 

 

Another model from the CFS at the Surface Pressure Plot.

This shows the 850 MB Level of the ECMWF or the European Model. this shows the storm system further east ward than the CFS.

This here is the CAPE from the ECMWF showing some modest instability for Tuesday Morning.

This here is the ECMWF Surface/Precipitation/1000MB-500MB Thickness and shows the storm system a bit west word and wounded up more than the CFS.

Here is the GFS or US Model this model has no ideal on the current weather maps and I will disregard this model for time being.This is the GFS 850 MB Temps.

This is the GFS Surface/Precipitation/1000MB-500MB Thickness

Final thought I am leaning towards the CFS as it has been right on for the last week or so on the severe weather part. However I am going to state this I will lean towards the ECMWF and the CFS Solution but with a compromise. This would bring a sunny day for Tuesday and bring showers and a thunderstorm late in the overnight on Tuesday Night into Wednesday Evening. The Storm Prediction Center currently has no risk area for WNY yet but that could change in later days. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/ for updated info go to www.weather.gov/buf

My Forecast as of 5/16/2013 at 8:38 AM

This Afternoon: Partly sunny skies with a high near 73.

Tonight: Mainly clear with a low near 43.

Friday: Partly sunny with a high near 70.

Friday Night: Mostly clear with a low near 48.

Saturday: Partly cloudy with a slight chance for an afternoon shower well South of Buffalo. High near 71.

Saturday Night: Partly cloudy with a low near 53.

Sunday: Partly sunny with a high near 70.

Sunday Night: Partly cloudy with a low near 56.

Monday: Partly sunny with a high near 80.

Monday Night: Partly cloudy with a low near 60.

Tuesday: Partly cloudy becoming mostly cloudy late with a shower or thunderstorm late. Chance for rain is near 40%

Tuesday Night: Showers and thunderstorms. Low near 58. Chance for rain is near 60%.

Wednesday: Shower and thunderstorms. High near 68. Chance for rain is near 50%.

Severe weather possible for Wednesday

Update coming later today...

I looked at the latest models for Wednesday next week and can see us getting a little dicy for the afternoon evening hours. Right now if it where to happen today we could get damaging winds excessive of 58 MPH and perhaps a tornado with some severe hail of 1inch diameter or larger. A big tornado outbreak is possible from Iowa to Kansas to Missouri on Sunday. For Monday and Tuesday a bit farther east. And it will be here in Western New York on Wednesday. More updates as later models come out.

7 Day Forecast as of 5/15/13 at 10:25 PM EDT

7-DAY FORECAST
Overnight Mostly clear, with a low around 49. Southwest wind around 8 mph.
Thursday Increasing clouds, with a high near 73. Southwest wind 13 to 18 mph.
Thursday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 42. Northwest wind 6 to 11 mph becoming light after midnight.
Friday Mostly sunny, with a high near 69. North wind around 7 mph.
Friday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 50. East wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening.
Saturday Partly sunny, with a high near 73.
Saturday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 54.
Sunday Partly sunny, with a high near 76.
Sunday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 57.
Monday Partly sunny, with a high near 78.
Monday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 61.
Tuesday A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 76. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Tuesday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 58.
Wednesday A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 76. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Forecast As of 5/13/13 at 6:57 pm edt

HAZARDOUS WEATHER CONDITIONS
Freeze Warning Hazardous Weather Outlook
7-DAY FORECAST
Tonight A slight chance of showers before 8pm. Patchy frost after 1am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming clear, with a low around 34. West wind 6 to 11 mph becoming light northwest after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Tuesday Increasing clouds, with a high near 58. Calm wind becoming southwest 5 to 9 mph in the afternoon.
Tuesday Night A chance of showers, mainly after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 45. Southeast wind 8 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Wednesday A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 10am. Cloudy, with a high near 73. Breezy, with a south wind 10 to 15 mph becoming southwest 20 to 25 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 36 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Wednesday Night A chance of showers before 8pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 50. West wind 7 to 14 mph becoming south after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Thursday Mostly sunny, with a high near 72.
Thursday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 49.
Friday Mostly sunny, with a high near 74.
Friday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 53.
Saturday Partly sunny, with a high near 75.
Saturday Night A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 55. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Sunday A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 77. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Sunday Night A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 58. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Monday A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 77. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1241 PM EDT MON MAY 13 2013

NYZ001>006-010-011-013-014-019-085-141645-
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-NORTHERN ERIE-
GENESEE-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-SOUTHERN ERIE-
1241 PM EDT MON MAY 13 2013

...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT
TUESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FREEZE WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FREEZE WARNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

$$