This is the CFS or Canadian Model at the 850 MB Level of the atmosphere or about 1200 to 1500 feet above sea level.This shows the storm system further west word than the other model shown below.
Another model from the CFS at the Surface Pressure Plot.
This shows the 850 MB Level of the ECMWF or the European Model. this shows the storm system further east ward than the CFS.
This here is the CAPE from the ECMWF showing some modest instability for Tuesday Morning.
This here is the ECMWF Surface/Precipitation/1000MB-500MB Thickness and shows the storm system a bit west word and wounded up more than the CFS.
Here is the GFS or US Model this model has no ideal on the current weather maps and I will disregard this model for time being.This is the GFS 850 MB Temps.
This is the GFS Surface/Precipitation/1000MB-500MB Thickness
Final thought I am leaning towards the CFS as it has been right on for the last week or so on the severe weather part. However I am going to state this I will lean towards the ECMWF and the CFS Solution but with a compromise. This would bring a sunny day for Tuesday and bring showers and a thunderstorm late in the overnight on Tuesday Night into Wednesday Evening. The Storm Prediction Center currently has no risk area for WNY yet but that could change in later days.
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/ for updated info go to
www.weather.gov/buf
