SUPPER CHRISTMAS STORM

All models are in agreement to where the system goes, but there remains uncertainty to what type of precipitation falls.

Here is the NAM run up

The first storm is over the Ohio river valley by December 24 at 7 pm ET.this isn't a factor. Just a dusting of snow. The big storm is in the 4 corners region.

The storm 1 exits, big storm 2 is gaining stringent over the lower Mississippi River Valley by December 25 at 7 pm ET.

The storm is over the lower Ohio River Valley by December 26 at 7 pm ET.

Here is the snow fall total for 84 hours.

 

The storm may bring a mix bag of precipitation for wny mainly south of buffalo. Then changing to all snow.

Here is the gfs for December 26 at 7 pm ET.

the gfs surface plot for December 27 at 7 pm ET.

 

Here is the Snow fall plot for December 26 at 7 pm ET. This is the 5 to 1 snow fall ratio.

 

Here is the 5 to 1 snow fall ratio once said and done.

 

Here is the 10 to 1 snow fall ratio once the storm exits.

 

The Climate Prediction Center 8 to 10 day temperature forecast.

 

The Climate Prediction Center 3 to 7 day hazardous weather forecast.

The Storm Prediction Center Forecast for Monday 12/24/12

The Storm Prediction Center Forecast for Tuesday 12/25/12

 

My Notes.

 

This isn't a record breaker by any means, but there is potential for a large amounts of snow and ice in the North East. Severe weather for the Deep South and even a few tornadoes. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio for further updates, watches, and warnings. NOAA's web site is www.weather.gov

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Winter 2013 Update

Comming Soon!

Stormy and Cold to come in the East.

Cold weather to come and close December. Very stormy pattern setting up  more on this later.

Buffalo New York Winter 2013 Forecast

January looks to be slightly below normal in temperatures with above normal snowfall. Look out for those lake effect snow events especially early in the month. Average high temperatures are 32 degrees and the low is 16 degrees. My monthly mean high temperature forecast is 29 degrees or -3 Degrees from the normal. My monthly mean low temperature forecast is 17 degrees or +1 degree from the normal. January Summary… It will start off mild in the first few days of January and then a big cool down with snowy and even some lake effect snows. Colder by end of the month. February looks to be much colder than normal with near normal snow fall. Watch out for strong storm system and even a few arctic blasts following the clippers. My forecast hi temperature is 25 degrees or -9 degrees from the normal. My forecast monthly average low is 16 or -1 degree from the normal. March looks to be very cold. My forecast daily monthly means temperature is -10 degrees from the normal of 33. Watch out for a prolonged winter in the Northeast. Here is the Major CFS 

Models for WNY… Buffalo Local Maps

National Model Maps 

January 2013

500 MB Heights Notice the trough in the Great Lakes Region and the Ridge in the West. This indicated a +PNA and a somewhat –NAO and even a –AO

500 Height Anomaly Look at the red near the Western Greenland. This is the blocking pattern that may set up a stormy one for the Northeast and East Coast. Cold air will filter in underneath this positive height anomalies and bring colder air for the Eastern US.

This is the foretasted departures of the  850 MB Temps for January. Notice the warmth in the East I feel this is over done and will need to be taken down. In the Northeast and Great Lakes Region may see below normal temperatures based on the previous maps.

This is the 70 MB Relative Humidity Forecast Anomalies. It seems to be drier than average due to the cold weather.

February 2013

Look at the trough in the East and a ridge just off the East Coast and in the Gulf of Alaska and Northwest.  This tells me that the PNA will be Positive and the NAO will be strongly negative. In a nut shell cold in the East; Warm in the West except in the Southwest where a bit of split flows will take shape.

It even shows up here on the temperature anomalies at the 850 MB Level. I expect a bit colder than normal in the North East Too. Warmer than what is being said in the Northwest.

 Notice the higher than normal heights in the Northern US. This tells me that there is blocking taking shape off the East Coast. Meaning more storms in the East and Western US.

Even the 700 MB RH is showing wetter than normal in the East and West.

March 2013

Big trough in the Eastern and Mid-West Regions. A Big Ridge in the West. This shows me that much colder air for the East.

It is even showing here on the 850 MB Temperatures Anomalies. I have a hunch that the Northeast and Mid-West will be colder than normal during this time.  Stay Tuned.

CPC Forecasts