SUPPER CHRISTMAS STORM

All models are in agreement to where the system goes, but there remains uncertainty to what type of precipitation falls.

Here is the NAM run up

The first storm is over the Ohio river valley by December 24 at 7 pm ET.this isn't a factor. Just a dusting of snow. The big storm is in the 4 corners region.

The storm 1 exits, big storm 2 is gaining stringent over the lower Mississippi River Valley by December 25 at 7 pm ET.

The storm is over the lower Ohio River Valley by December 26 at 7 pm ET.

Here is the snow fall total for 84 hours.

 

The storm may bring a mix bag of precipitation for wny mainly south of buffalo. Then changing to all snow.

Here is the gfs for December 26 at 7 pm ET.

the gfs surface plot for December 27 at 7 pm ET.

 

Here is the Snow fall plot for December 26 at 7 pm ET. This is the 5 to 1 snow fall ratio.

 

Here is the 5 to 1 snow fall ratio once said and done.

 

Here is the 10 to 1 snow fall ratio once the storm exits.

 

The Climate Prediction Center 8 to 10 day temperature forecast.

 

The Climate Prediction Center 3 to 7 day hazardous weather forecast.

The Storm Prediction Center Forecast for Monday 12/24/12

The Storm Prediction Center Forecast for Tuesday 12/25/12

 

My Notes.

 

This isn't a record breaker by any means, but there is potential for a large amounts of snow and ice in the North East. Severe weather for the Deep South and even a few tornadoes. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio for further updates, watches, and warnings. NOAA's web site is www.weather.gov