Early Spring Outlook - Feeling on a possible Early Spring!

It is about 30% chance for an early spring, but it will be only of February starts cold, then warms in the later half. I think this is valid as most climate models have agreed to a warming trend. I think this will happen despite a sudden stratospheric warming that is occurring. This is only because there is a forecast for a strong El Nino. With the warming in the East and Great Lakes, I looked at the plots and severe weather is all possible. Severe weather may break out anywhere from the Great Lakes into the Tennessee River Valley. The Great Plans would be cooler than normal, and will offer a unstable air to bring the severe weather to the east. A trough will set up in the Midwest which means a Ridge in the east and off the west coast. Expect an amplified pattern to shape up to allow the severe weather. Summer looks stormy in the east early. Mid-west looks to become milder late in June. I feel the Northwest and West to be wet and below normal in temperatures. Stay tuned for later updates.