My Winter Storm Forecast for WNY (Storm 2/8/2013)

I have a feeling that the two storms will merge just West of NYC Area. This is due to strong Canadian High Pressure near James Bay, Canada. High pressures wind flow is from the center of the high downwards to the and outwards in a counter-clockwise flow. Low pressures flow from outward clockwise into the center and upwards. High pressures also flow towards low pressure systems. Think of it as cold Lake Eire during the spring time and the Warm Down Town Buffalo. The cool water acts as a high pressure, the warm land acts like low pressure. This creates the lake breeze in the spring time and early summer months. Another way cooler air is more dense than warmer air, meaning in cooler air the. This more dense allows the air to sink and move in a counter-clockwise flow to warmer air that is rising and flowing clockwise. Similar to the above lake breeze air mass.

 

Back to topic, this high pressure will bring the Low pressure that will be moving North from the Carolinas to the NYC area and merge with a weakening low pressure moving East from Chicago. These two storms will phase out into one storm that just bombs out over Southern New England. My best case scenario for WNY would be 8 to 14 inches North of Buffalo Batavia. And a mix of snow and sleet and freezing rain South brining storm totals to about 7 to 10 inches and just a glaze of ice.

Winter Storm Warning For WNY

Winter Storm Warning

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
948 PM EST THU FEB 7 2013

NYZ001-002-010-011-081100-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.W.0001.130208T0600Z-130209T1000Z/
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...BUFFALO...
BATAVIA
948 PM EST THU FEB 7 2013

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM FRIDAY TO
5 AM EST SATURDAY...

* LOCATIONS...NIAGARA FRONTIER.

* TIMING...LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.

* HAZARDS...HEAVY SNOW...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SLEET AND FREEZING
  RAIN SOUTH OF A LINE FROM BUFFALO TO BATAVIA FRIDAY MORNING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 8 INCHES FRIDAY...AND 2 TO 5 INCHES FRIDAY
  NIGHT...LEADING TO STORM TOTALS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES. GREATEST SNOW
  TOTALS EXPECTED CLOSE TO LAKE ONTARIO.

* VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES.

* IMPACTS...VERY DIFFICULT TRAVEL WITH SNOW COVERED ROADS AND POOR
  VISIBILITY. EXPECT THE WORST CONDITIONS FROM MID MORNING TO
  EARLY EVENING FRIDAY WHEN SNOWFALL RATES MAY EXCEED AN INCH PER
  HOUR. IT IS DURING THIS TIME THAT THE BULK OF THE SNOW WILL
  FALL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED. HEAVY SNOW AND/OR ICE WILL CAUSE HAZARDOUS DRIVING
CONDITIONS. IF YOU WILL BE TRAVELING IN THE WARNING AREA YOU
SHOULD CHOOSE AN ALTERNATE ROUTE IF POSSIBLE...OR YOU SHOULD USE
EXTREME CAUTION IF TRAVEL IS UNAVOIDABLE.

IF YOU LOSE POWER AND PLAN ON RUNNING A GENERATOR...MAKE SURE
THAT THE GENERATOR IS LOCATED OUTDOORS AND IS PROPERLY
VENTILATED. SPACE HEATERS SHOULD ALSO BE PROPERLY VENTILATED AND
USED ONLY IF THEY ARE OPERATING PROPERLY. MAKE SURE SNOW DOES NOT
BLOCK EXHAUSTS AND FRESH AIR INTAKES FOR HIGH EFFICIENCY FURNACES
AND WATER HEATERS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

REPORT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
BUFFALO BY SENDING AN EMAIL TO BUFSTORM.REPORT@NOAA.GOV...POSTING
TO THE NWS BUFFALO FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET...USING THE HASHTAG
BUFWX

&&

$$

Up to the date weather can be found at www.weather.gov/buf

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
948 PM EST THU FEB 7 2013

NYZ012>014-019>021-085-081100-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.W.0001.130208T0900Z-130209T1000Z/
WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-
SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WARSAW...GENESEO...CANANDAIGUA...
JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...WELLSVILLE...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
948 PM EST THU FEB 7 2013

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM FRIDAY TO
5 AM EST SATURDAY...

* LOCATIONS...WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER...WESTERN FINGER LAKES...AND
  SOUTHERN ERIE AND WYOMING COUNTIES.

* TIMING...LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.

* HAZARDS...HEAVY SNOW...FREEZING RAIN...AND SLEET.

* ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 4 INCHES FRIDAY...AND 2 TO 3 INCHES FRIDAY
  NIGHT...LEADING TO STORM TOTALS OF 4 TO 7 INCHES. ICE
  ACCUMULATING A TENTH TO A QUARTER INCH IN SOME LOCATIONS.

* VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES.

* IMPACTS...THE COMBINATION OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL
  RESULT IN VERY HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. THE STEADIEST
  PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN FRIDAY MORNING AND CHANGE TO ALL SNOW
  BY EARLY AFTERNOON. HEAVIEST SNOW EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
  EARLY EVENING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED. HEAVY SNOW AND/OR ICE WILL CAUSE HAZARDOUS DRIVING
CONDITIONS. IF YOU WILL BE TRAVELING IN THE WARNING AREA YOU
SHOULD CHOOSE AN ALTERNATE ROUTE IF POSSIBLE...OR YOU SHOULD USE
EXTREME CAUTION IF TRAVEL IS UNAVOIDABLE.

IF YOU LOSE POWER AND PLAN ON RUNNING A GENERATOR...MAKE SURE
THAT THE GENERATOR IS LOCATED OUTDOORS AND IS PROPERLY
VENTILATED. SPACE HEATERS SHOULD ALSO BE PROPERLY VENTILATED AND
USED ONLY IF THEY ARE OPERATING PROPERLY. MAKE SURE SNOW DOES NOT
BLOCK EXHAUSTS AND FRESH AIR INTAKES FOR HIGH EFFICIENCY FURNACES
AND WATER HEATERS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

REPORT SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN BUFFALO BY SENDING AN EMAIL TO BUFSTORM.REPORT@NOAA.GOV...
POSTING TO THE NWS BUFFALO FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET...USING THE
HASHTAG BUFWX

&&

$$

HITCHCOCK
Up to the date weather can be found at www.weather.gov/buf

Auburn, NY

Winter Storm Warning

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
957 PM EST THU FEB 7 2013

NYZ009-015>018-036-037-090300-
/O.CON.KBGM.WS.W.0001.130208T0900Z-130209T1200Z/
NORTHERN ONEIDA-YATES-SENECA-SOUTHERN CAYUGA-ONONDAGA-MADISON-
SOUTHERN ONEIDA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BOONVILLE...PENN YAN...SENECA FALLS...
AUBURN...SYRACUSE...ONEIDA...UTICA...ROME
957 PM EST THU FEB 7 2013

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM FRIDAY TO
7 AM EST SATURDAY...

* LOCATIONS...ONONDAGA...MADISON AND ONEIDA COUNTIES.

* HAZARDS...HEAVY SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...6 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE MORNING. THE HEAVIEST
  SNOWFALL IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
  SNOW WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
  SATURDAY.

* TEMPERATURES...25 TO 30 DEGREES ON FRIDAY...THEN QUICKLY
  DROPPING INTO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

* WINDS...EAST 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS WILL
MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.

PLEASE REPORT SNOWFALL AND/OR ICE AMOUNTS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE AT 1-877-633-6772...OR BY EMAIL AT
BGM.STORMREPORT@NOAA.GOV.

&&

$$

Early Spring Outlook - Feeling on a possible Early Spring!

It is about 30% chance for an early spring, but it will be only of February starts cold, then warms in the later half. I think this is valid as most climate models have agreed to a warming trend. I think this will happen despite a sudden stratospheric warming that is occurring. This is only because there is a forecast for a strong El Nino. With the warming in the East and Great Lakes, I looked at the plots and severe weather is all possible. Severe weather may break out anywhere from the Great Lakes into the Tennessee River Valley. The Great Plans would be cooler than normal, and will offer a unstable air to bring the severe weather to the east. A trough will set up in the Midwest which means a Ridge in the east and off the west coast. Expect an amplified pattern to shape up to allow the severe weather. Summer looks stormy in the east early. Mid-west looks to become milder late in June. I feel the Northwest and West to be wet and below normal in temperatures. Stay tuned for later updates.

Note To My Readers!

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Extreme Cold is Possible By End January 2013!

I am not going to get into big details on this, i am just pasting a source link to the main article. This article isn’t written by me but another Andrew from The Weather Center. The First Article ishttp://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/2013/01/severe-arctic-cold-could-mimic-january.html

The Last one is http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/2013/01/stratospheric-analysis-and-forecast.html 

Below is my article.

Now my judgment, I know a lot about forecasting the weather, and the above topic is way beyond my knowledge. I do know that I looked at the ECMWF or European Models for predicting the weather. I looked at the ECMWF Monthly Control. This model is a model that goes out 30 days and is updated every Thursday AM. The ECMWF is one of the elite models when forecasting. The next is the American Model known as the GFS. Now when I looked at the ECMWF Monthlies it showed severe cold in the 850 MB Level or about 1200 Feet off the Earth. The time frame is between January 27 – February 6. The coldest as of now is on February 1 and 2. The peak temperatures could bottom out at -30 Degrees + Celsius at the 850 MB Level. I would share the picture, but due to the govern laws prohibit me from reproducing them. You can find them from only one public source at proa.accuweather.com. AccuWeather Professional is a paid service for weather buffs like me. At -30 Degrees + Celsius we could see low temperatures as cold as -10 F or colder. This is our high temperature in Buffalo at an 850 MB Temperature of -30 C. This in combined with a wind event could spawn life threatening conditions. During January 27 – February 6 will start off with a major winter storm with severe weather in the Southeast and a Major Winter Storm in the Great Lakes into the Northeastern US. Followed by a very windy time and even life threatening cold. It will start off with high temperatures in the lower 20s and lows in the mid-teens. Then highs in the minus single to double digits and lows much colder. Finally ends with highs in the single digits above and minus single digits as a low. Stay Tuned!

Andrew Ditch

SUPPER CHRISTMAS STORM

All models are in agreement to where the system goes, but there remains uncertainty to what type of precipitation falls.

Here is the NAM run up

The first storm is over the Ohio river valley by December 24 at 7 pm ET.this isn't a factor. Just a dusting of snow. The big storm is in the 4 corners region.

The storm 1 exits, big storm 2 is gaining stringent over the lower Mississippi River Valley by December 25 at 7 pm ET.

The storm is over the lower Ohio River Valley by December 26 at 7 pm ET.

Here is the snow fall total for 84 hours.

 

The storm may bring a mix bag of precipitation for wny mainly south of buffalo. Then changing to all snow.

Here is the gfs for December 26 at 7 pm ET.

the gfs surface plot for December 27 at 7 pm ET.

 

Here is the Snow fall plot for December 26 at 7 pm ET. This is the 5 to 1 snow fall ratio.

 

Here is the 5 to 1 snow fall ratio once said and done.

 

Here is the 10 to 1 snow fall ratio once the storm exits.

 

The Climate Prediction Center 8 to 10 day temperature forecast.

 

The Climate Prediction Center 3 to 7 day hazardous weather forecast.

The Storm Prediction Center Forecast for Monday 12/24/12

The Storm Prediction Center Forecast for Tuesday 12/25/12

 

My Notes.

 

This isn't a record breaker by any means, but there is potential for a large amounts of snow and ice in the North East. Severe weather for the Deep South and even a few tornadoes. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio for further updates, watches, and warnings. NOAA's web site is www.weather.gov